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Who will win the 2026 WRC championship is still a three-man question with two rallies to go. Elfyn Evans leads on 230 points, Sami Pajari has 213 and Oliver Solberg 209 after Rally Chile on 10 to 13 September. That leaves 70 points on the table: 35 at Rally Italia Sardegna from 1 to 4 October, and 35 at Rally Saudi Arabia from 11 to 14 November. Evans is the favourite. He is also one puncture away from losing the lot.
The short version
Elfyn Evans leads the 2026 WRC on 230 points, 17 clear of Sami Pajari and 21 clear of Oliver Solberg, with two rounds and 70 points left. He can only seal the title at Rally Italia Sardegna by leaving the island 36 or more points ahead of every rival. Anything less and Rally Saudi Arabia decides it in November.
WRC 2026 standings: Evans, Pajari and who is still mathematically alive
These are the numbers as of 16 September 2026, taken from the official classification after round 12 of 14. The last column is the simple test: add 70 to a driver’s total and see whether it beats the 230 Evans already has in the bank.
| Driver | Car | Points | Gap to Evans | Maximum possible | Still in it? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfyn Evans | Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 | 230 | leader | 300 | Yes |
| Sami Pajari | Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 | 213 | 17 | 283 | Yes |
| Oliver Solberg | Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 | 209 | 21 | 279 | Yes |
| Sébastien Ogier | Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 | 171 | 59 | 241 | Only on paper |
| Adrien Fourmaux | Hyundai i20 N Rally1 | 167 | 63 | 237 | Only on paper |
| Takamoto Katsuta | Toyota GR Yaris Rally1 | 163 | 67 | 233 | Only on paper |
| Thierry Neuville | Hyundai i20 N Rally1 | 129 | 101 | 199 | No |
Neuville is the first name to fall off. Even with two perfect weekends he tops out at 199, which is 31 short of what Evans has already scored, so this year’s Rally Portugal winner, the 2024 champion, is out. Everyone above him is technically alive, though Ogier, Fourmaux and Katsuta all need Evans to essentially stop scoring.
Chile is why the gap is 17 and not 30. Solberg led all but one stage and won by 16.6 seconds from Sébastien Ogier, while Evans picked up a puncture on the penultimate stage, lost more than two minutes changing it and fell from second to fifth. Pajari finished fourth, a minute and a half back, and took three points out of the lead without doing anything spectacular. Solberg cut his own deficit by 20 in a single weekend. Evans told DirtFish afterwards that he had expected to lose the championship lead long before now “after opening the road for so many rallies”, and called the situation “a full three-way fight”.
How does the WRC points system work in 2026?
A WRC weekend is worth a maximum of 35 points, and they come from three separate pots. Per the FIA regulations published on wrc.com:
- Final overall classification, top ten: 25, 17, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1.
- Super Sunday, the combined times of Sunday’s stages only, top five: 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
- The Wolf Power Stage, the last stage of the rally, top five: 5, 4, 3, 2, 1.
Rally Chile shows how that works in practice. Solberg took 34 of the 35: 25 for the win, five for the Power Stage and four for finishing second on Super Sunday behind Ogier, who banked the full five there on top of his 17 for second overall. Evans scored 10 for fifth plus four in bonuses, which is how 216 became 230 on a weekend that felt like a disaster.
The important quirk is what happens when a car stops. The 2024 season handed out points for the Saturday-night classification, and DirtFish reported those were scrapped for 2025 so that winning a rally paid properly again. What survived is the Sunday split, and it means a driver who crashes out on Friday can restart under Rally2 rules and still take up to 10 points on Sunday morning without appearing anywhere near the top of the results. The old rally maths said a retirement equals zero. It does not any more. That single rule is worth more to a title chase than any of the strategy games you see in MotoGP’s 2026 title fight, where a crash really does mean nothing.
Who will win the 2026 WRC championship if Sardinia goes Evans’s way?
For Evans to be champion on 4 October, he has to leave Sardinia at least 36 points clear of everybody. Thirty-five is not enough, and that is not pedantry, as the tie-break section below explains.
Work it back from the current gaps. Against Pajari, Evans needs to outscore him by 19 over the weekend. Against Solberg, by 15. The cleanest version: Evans wins the rally, wins Super Sunday and wins the Power Stage for a full 35, Pajari scores 16 or fewer (fourth place plus four bonus points, say) and Solberg scores 20 or fewer. Evans does not strictly need the maximum, though. Thirty points for him and 11 for Pajari does the same job.
Sardinia in October is a genuine unknown. The rally moved from its usual June slot to become the final European round, and organisers confirmed in December 2025 that it returns to Alghero after a year based in Olbia, with the service park on the Lungomare Barcellona a few metres from the water. Cooler autumn air and the chance of rain change how much the abrasive Sardinian gravel chews through tyres, and it is one of the highest-wear events of the year at the best of times.
It is also the surface Evans himself has been rudest about. Before the season he told Autosport that dry gravel rounds like Portugal, Greece and Sardinia had been his weak spot, describing his old pace there as “pathetically slow”. Add road position to that. As championship leader he runs first on the road on Friday at gravel events, sweeping the loose surface clean for the people behind him, which is exactly the handicap he has already survived for most of the summer.
What the Rally Saudi Arabia finale can settle
Rally Saudi Arabia runs from 11 to 14 November and hosts the finale for the second year running. It is based at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit, the same seafront venue Formula 1 has used for the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, and sends 17 stages out across fast open desert, volcanic rock and pockets of soft sand. Anyone within 35 points of the lead after Sardinia arrives with a live shot at the title.
Evans knows that better than anyone in the paddock. He lost the 2025 championship at this same rally, by four points, to his own team-mate Ogier. That was his fifth runner-up finish in six seasons. The manufacturers’ title is already gone: Toyota wrapped it up in Chile, a record-equalling tenth that draws them level with Lancia, so the Jeddah weekend exists purely for the drivers’ fight. Compare that with the way WEC’s 2026 championship or Formula E’s Gen4 season handle their finales, and the WRC version is unusually raw: no double points, no reset, just 35 on the table like every other round.
The tie-break that could cost Evans the title
The FIA sporting regulations break a points tie on countback, starting with the number of outright wins, then second places, then thirds. That matters here because Pajari has won three rallies this season (Estonia, Finland and Paraguay). Evans has won two (Sweden and Japan). Solberg has won two (Monte-Carlo and Chile).
So if Evans and Pajari finish level on 2026 points, Pajari is world champion and Evans is the runner-up for a sixth time. It gets worse. Scoring the full 35 at a rally requires winning that rally, so any scenario where Pajari exactly erases a 35-point deficit also hands him a fourth win and the countback. That is why the number Evans needs going into Jeddah is 36, not 35.
FAQ
How many rallies are left in the 2026 WRC season?
Two. The 2026 WRC calendar has 14 rounds and 12 are done. Rally Italia Sardegna runs from 1 to 4 October, based in Alghero, and Rally Saudi Arabia closes the season from 11 to 14 November in Jeddah. Each is worth up to 35 points, so 70 remain for a driver who wins both outright with maximum bonuses.
When is Rally Saudi Arabia 2026?
Rally Saudi Arabia 2026 runs from 11 to 14 November and is round 14, the final event of the season. The base is the Jeddah Corniche Circuit and the route covers 17 stages of desert gravel, rock and sand. It hosts the WRC finale for the second consecutive year, having decided the 2025 title by four points.
Can Sébastien Ogier still win the 2026 title?
Only just. Ogier sits 59 points behind Evans with 70 available, so the arithmetic has not closed yet. To still be alive when the cars reach Jeddah he would need to outscore Evans by 24 points in Sardinia, meaning something close to a win for him and a near-blank weekend for Evans. Treat it as a long shot rather than a plan.
What happens if Evans and Pajari finish level on points?
Pajari takes the championship. The FIA breaks a dead heat by counting outright rally wins first, and Pajari has three in 2026 against Evans’s two. Second places are the next criterion if wins are also level. It is the reason Evans has to build a 36-point cushion rather than 35 to clinch the title before the final round.
About this article: the standings, calendar dates, points values and tie-break rules here were checked against the official classification on wrc.com, Toyota Gazoo Racing’s published 2026 points table, the FIA’s 2026 WRC sporting regulations update, and post-event reporting from DirtFish and Autosport. Arithmetic in the tables and scenarios is our own and shown in full so you can check it.